martes, 25 de octubre de 2011

Swi-prolog con R

Con Swi-Prolog se puede crear programacion logica. Existe una interfaz para conectar swi-prolog con R, por lo que se pueden crear Programas Bayesianos Lógicos, los cuales, sirven para determinar probabilidades de afectación de agentes por sus fuentes de Riesgo, y estos a su vez, dado sus factores de Riesgo.


Aqui una captura de pantalla  usando el entorno eclipse.


miércoles, 17 de agosto de 2011

Analisis Multivriado 2012-I

Análisis Multivariado
Grupo 6135,
Profesor Harim García Lamont lu mi vi 10 a 11 Lunes y Miercoles P203 y Viernes Taller de Analisis Numerico Tlahuizcalpan
Ayudante Fernando Daniel Pérez Arriaga ma ju 10 a 11  Taller de Analisis Numerico Tlahuizcalpan

Modo de calificacion mediante tareas, las cuales tienen fecha limite de entrega hasta el ultimo min del semestre. Se deben entregar todas para tener calificacion aprobatoria y bien realizadas.


Practicas en laboratorio:

Bibliografia:

Multivariate Analysis

* K. V. Mardia
* Elsevier Science & Technology
* 521 páginas
* Idioma: Inglés
* ISBN: 0124712525 ISBN-13: 9780124712522




Multivariate Observations
George A. F. Seber
ISBN: 978-0-471-69121-1
Paperback
686 pages

Matrix Variate Distributions
Publisher: Chapman & Hall/CRC
Author: A K Gupta, D K Nagar, D K Nagar
Language: English
ISBN:1584880465
EAN:9781584880462

Estadistica Bayesiana 2012-I

Estadística Bayesiana
Grupo 4216.
Profesor: Harim García Lamont lu mi vi 16 a 17 P108
Ayudante: Francisco Javier Méndez Correa ma ju 16 a 17 P108
Temario:(Oficial de la Facultad de Ciencias)

Modo de calificacion mediante tareas, las cuales tienen fecha limite de entrega hasta el ultimo min del semestre. Se deben entregar todas para tener calificacion aprobatoria y bien realizadas.

Listado de Tareas Harim y Francisco 
Referencia de Tareas Entrgadas

Bibliografia:

 Bayesian Theory Wiley| ISBN 0471924164 | 1994-01-15 | PDF | 586 pages | 4.6 MB 







Optimal Statistical Decisions 
(Wiley Classics Library)
M. DeGroot
Disponible en la Facultad




Statistical Decision Theory and Bayesian Analysis
James O. Berger
Springer | 1993-03-25 | ISBN: 0387960988 | 617 pages 
Disponible en la Facultad
Link de Descarga:http://www.ebooksx.com/Statistical-Decision-Theory-and-Bayesian-Analysis_148115.html






Subjective and Objective Bayesian Statistics: Principles, Models, and Applications, 2nd Edition
S. James Press
 Disponible en el IIMAS de la UNAM
Link de Descarga:http://www.dibun.com/ebooks/1472-SubjectiveandObjectiveBayesianStatisticsPrinciples.html
Bioestadística: Una Perspectiva Bayesiana. 
Bernardo, J. M. (1981). 


martes, 5 de julio de 2011

¡Auto Insurance (@OAutoInsurance) te está siguiendo en Twitter!

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Auto Insurance @OAutoInsurance ahora te sigue (@actuzo).

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¡Odell Studner Group (@odellstudner) te está siguiendo en Twitter!

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National P&C and health insurance brokerage specializing in complex risk management, captives, and alternative insurance solutions for mid-sized businesses.
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lunes, 27 de junio de 2011

ERM in the News - June 22, 2011

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ERM in the News

 

Volume 4, No. 9

June 22, 2011

 

The Enterprise Risk Management Initiative (ERM Initiative) at North Carolina State University's Poole College of Management is sending you this brief e-mail newsletter to highlight the following recent ERM-related news:

 

1. Managing Political Risks
2. Raising Awareness about Cybersecurity Risks

3. Evaluating Supply Chain Risk
4. Assessing Effectiveness of ERM Programs

5. Webinar on Strategic Risk Oversight

6. Risks Associated with Climate Change and Sustainability

7. Practical Steps to Strengthen Your Organization’s Risk Oversight

 

See the following for additional information:

 

Managing Political Risks

The recent turmoil in the Middle East, the tsunami in Japan, and the unfolding political regime in Greece provide recent examples of how political risks are at the forefront of management’s attention for organizations with operations around the globe. As companies try to tap into the market prospects of doing business around the world, they are finding that countries with the most enticing opportunities often are in some of the most politically risky environments. The June 2011 issue of CFO Magazine analyzes how organizations are realizing the need to think more robustly about how shifts in political risks may affect the risk profiles of their global operations. Read more

 

Raising Awareness about Cybersecurity Risks

With growing frequency, the business press is reporting security breaches at highly reputable organizations whereby sophisticated cybercriminals gain access to highly sensitive information. Valuable corporate information assets, in addition to personal or financial information of customers and employees, can be exposed. As a result, organizations are making cybersecurity risk a top-priority of their enterprise risk analysis given the numerous risk issues that cybersecurity breaches create for organizations who experience an intrusion event. A recent white paper, issued by the law firm of Sidley Austin LLP, provides a number of issues to be considered by senior executives as they evaluate cyber risk exposures. Read more 

Evaluating Supply Chain Risk
While the push towards increased outsourcing and just-in-time methods of managing a supply chain can create cost reductions, it can also potentially increase risk exposures that may be well beyond an organization’s risk appetite when significant disruptions strike. Recent events, such as the Japanese tsunami, are revealing significant risk threats that exist along the supply chain of many organizations. A recent CFO Magazine article emphasizes the importance of spending time to thoroughly analyze vulnerabilities along an organization’s supply chain to develop plans of response when major disruptions arise. Read more

Assessing Effectiveness of ERM Programs
In light of some of the recent failures of financial services and other companies around the globe, the growing political unrest in foreign governments, and massive natural disasters, one of the greatest risks an organization faces is the lack of an effective ERM program. As boards continue to increase their expectations for management to design and implement effective enterprise-wide risk management programs, they have an increasing need for objective assessments of the effectiveness of those programs. The June 2011 cover story article in Internal Auditor highlights the role internal audit can provide in conducting those assessments for the board. Read more

Webinar on Strategic Risk Oversight
Our ERM Initiative Director, Mark Beasley, was the keynote speaker for a June 8, 2011 webinar titled, “Strategic Risk Oversight,” hosted by Compliance360. Beasley shared insights about the current state of enterprise risk oversight and how organizations are striving to more effectively embed their risk oversight processes in the context of the organization’s strategy. He highlighted the need for effective key risk indicators to help executives more proactively monitor their most significant strategic risks to keep their strategy efforts on track. Listen to the webinar (free of charge)

Risks Associated with Climate Change and Sustainability

The growing focus on climate change and issues related to sustainability are creating opportunities and risks for organizations. Some organizations are viewing issues associated with sustainability as an opportunity to market or brand themselves as a good corporate citizen as it relates to the environment. Others are looking at climate change and sustainability as a source of potential risks that may threaten the organization’s business model for the future. A recent Ernst & Young thought paper analyzes how climate change and sustainability may interact with strategic, compliance, financial, reputational, and operational risks. Read more

 

Practical Steps to Strengthen Your Organization’s Risk Oversight

Interested in learning how your organization can leverage its risk management efforts for strategic advantage? Join us on October 13-14, 2011 in New York for the 1½ day workshop: Strengthening Your Enterprise’s Risk Oversight for Strategic Benefit. This workshop – our last offering of this was sold out – provides practical guidance and real-world examples to help senior executives and their board of directors develop a risk oversight process that is embedded in the context of the organization’s strategic plan. Prior participants rave about the down-to-earth tactical approach presented in this workshop for identifying, assessing, and managing an entity’s most significant risk exposures, including emerging strategic risks. This high-level forum, limited to 50 participants, offers attendees an interactive setting for dialogue with leading experts on trends related to the intersection of ERM and strategic planning, in addition to providing an opportunity for the exchange of ideas. Register now to ensure a seat in the course. Learn more

 

 

The ERM Initiative provides executive education for boards of directors and senior executives focusing on the integration of enterprise risk management with strategic planning and board risk oversight. Contact us at ERM_Initiative@ncsu.edu or 919.513.0901 begin_of_the_skype_highlighting            919.513.0901      end_of_the_skype_highlighting further details or visit our website at www.erm.ncsu.edu.

 

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¡inside-R Community (@inside_R) te está siguiendo en Twitter!

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inside-R.org is a collection of resources for the R Open Source Statistics Community -- sponsored by Revolution Analytics.
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OpenIndiana Announced, the fork to Oracle’s OpenSolaris!

OpenIndiana Announced, the fork to Oracle’s OpenSolaris!

Strategic Risk Oversight Training - October 13-14, 2011

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Don't miss your chance to attend...
the last offering of this workshop was sold out!


Strengthening Your Enterprise’s Risk Oversight for Strategic Benefit

workshop brochure image

Build Value-Adding Risk Oversight Capabilities for Your Organization

Managing enterprise risk and strategic planning remains tenuous and demanding given today’s business climate. How will you oversee strategic risks in the next 3-5 years?  Do you feel your risk management process is sufficiently effective and appropriately integrated with strategy execution?

At the workshop, Strengthening Your Enterprise’s Risk Oversight for Strategic Benefit, leading experts provide advanced training and real-world ideas for senior executives and board members.  Leave this workshop with suggestions you can implement and strengthen the strategic value of your organization.

Register by 7/5/11 with the early-Bird Discount and save $75 off the regular registration rate.

 

Who Should Attend?
CFOs, controllers, chief audit executives, CROs, and other senior executives who interact with, or serve on, boards and audit committees about risk management issues.

Why Attend?
Learn practical steps to quickly strengthen your enterprise risk oversight efforts.

 

Conference Highlights include:

  • Emerging Expectations for Stronger Management Oversight of Key Risks
  • Defining Key Steps for Effective Top-Down Risk Oversight
  • Integrating Enterprise Risk Oversight and Strategic Planning
  • Practical Examples for Developing an Enterprise View of Top Emerging Risks
  • Monitoring Key Risk Metrics

 

Pass along the savings!
Please encourage your co-workers and colleagues to also take advantage of this special offer.
(This offer cannot be combined with any other offer.)

 

Register by 7/5/11 and save $75 off the regular registration rate.





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¡Ezra Penland (@EzraPenland) te está siguiendo en Twitter!

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Ezra Penland @EzraPenland ahora te sigue (@actuzo).

Ezra Penland Actuarial Recruitment works with actuaries and actuarial analysts, catastrophe risk modelers, predictive modelers, as well as executive roles.
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ERM in the News - June 10, 2011

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ERM in the News

 

Volume 4, No. 8

June 10, 2011

 

The Enterprise Risk Management Initiative (ERM Initiative) at North Carolina State University's Poole College of Management is sending you this brief e-mail newsletter to highlight the following recent ERM-related news:

 

1. World Economic Forum Launches Risk Response Network

2. Homeland Security Risk Management Fundamentals

3. Exceeding Expectations of the Board: Boosting Internal Audit’s Role in Risk Oversight

4. Embracing Enterprise Risk Assessments to Enhance Impact of Internal Audit

5. The Five-Course Meal of Enterprise Risk Management

6. Pay Attention to Low Probability Scenarios

 

See the following for additional information:

 

World Economic Forum Launches Risk Response Network

The World Economic Forum has launched its Risk Response Network that will help facilitate the oversight and response to complex and interconnected global risks. The Forum’s permanent staff assigned to the Risk Response Network will help provide a global focus on the array of risks arising from economic inequalities, failed governance systems, natural disasters, cybersecurity, and resource scarcity to strengthen global leaders in their ability to more proactively oversee and respond to these, and other, complex risks. Read about the Network and watch the video emphasizing need for global risk focus.

Homeland Security Risk Management Fundamentals
The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) plays a critical role in leading a unified effort in the management of the diverse and complex set of risks facing the United States. To strengthen capabilities in fulfilling its mission, DHS has created a Risk Management Fundamentals to provide a structured approach for the distribution and use of risk information and analysis efforts across the Department. The publication lists key principles, discusses approaches, and explains the process of effective risk management intended for DHS organizations and personnel to adopt. Read more

Exceeding Expectations of the Board: Boosting Internal Audit’s Role in Risk Oversight
New risks and opportunities will continue to evolve for organizations as they continue to experience significant change and expansion. Boards, in particular the audit committee, will continually need to evaluate the adequacy of management’s ability to manage top risk exposures, including whether internal audit is proactively identifying and assessing management’s oversight of emerging risks. A recent Deloitte Audit Committee Brief notes that internal audit needs to embrace a heightened focus on risk management activities and governance and they need to expand their role from primarily auditing, operational, and regulatory risks to also encompass a focus on strategic and emerging risks. Read more

Embracing Enterprise Risk Assessments to Enhance Impact of Internal Audit
While management holds primary responsibility for enterprise risk assessment, a recent Journal of Accountancy article emphasizes that internal audit can enhance its role in organizations by engaging more in enterprise risk management oversight. The article highlights tips on how to improve an organization’s internal audit function, based on an interview with Protiviti’s executive vice president and head of global internal audit. The suggestions include conducting risk assessments, identifying emerging risks, evaluating IT security and privacy, and developing and distributing talent, among many others. Read article

The Five-Course Meal of Enterprise Risk Management
Enterprise Risk Management projects can be intimidating and difficult to manage due to the large time and effort involved. An article published by Property Casualty 360 asserts that breaking down ERM projects into multiple courses is the best way to tackle the daunting task. The courses include developing a project plan, identifying risks, assessing risks using metrics, risk reporting and monitoring, setting effective controls, and utilizing strategic analysis. Read article

Pay Attention to Low Probability Scenarios
Low probability disaster scenarios tend to be overlooked by organizations, but they deserve more attention and planning, according to management expert Stuart Greenbaum at the Olin Business School at Washington University in St. Louis. An effective Enterprise Risk Management program should consider all inherent risks and potential disasters to protect the organization from additional direct and indirect costs, and reduce the probability and impact from catastrophic events. While an effective ERM program couldn’t prevent natural disasters, such as the recent tsunami in Japan, it provides a disciplined structure that encourages business leaders to more robustly consider the impact of low-probability events to their operations. Read more

 

The ERM Initiative provides executive education for boards of directors and senior executives focusing on the integration of enterprise risk management with strategic planning and board risk oversight. Contact us at ERM_Initiative@ncsu.edu or 919.513.0901 for further details or visit our website at www.erm.ncsu.edu.

 

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